Prepare for Them
Don’t waste effort and resources trying to manipulate future climates; the history of science facts shows few notable successes. People have been trying to start rain, bring rain, or make rain by various means, even scientific methods, with very little success. Even today with our best science, we can only make it rain when the precursors are perfect for seeding, and then not very often. We do not know how to diminish large storms, stop deserts, start rain forests, melt polar ice caps, change the earth’s rotation speed, cool the molten core, stop volcanoes, or move the sun, nor can we have any predictable effect upon climate or atmospheric temperatures globally.
Other weather, temperature and climate interactions are far less well understood. Atmospheric chemistry and atmospheric physics have made some progress the past thirty years, but there is still very little data upon which to determine the impacts of human activities beyond the sources and interactions of a few of the most harmful contaminants, little has been learned regarding others, like atmospheric heat. Human produced heat can easily be estimated accurately. Heat from other sources like solar radiance, volcanic lava flow and magma temperature migrations are much less well known.
Much less data is available to support the conjecture that global climate changes are induced, made worse, or triggered somehow by greenhouse gases from human activities. Evidence exists indicating six to twelve percent of this planets greenhouse gases may come from all human activity combined. Far more comes from terrestrial sources like volcanoes, swamps, jungle and forest rot, and animal gases, urine and feces. Greenhouse gases, their causes and effects, human contribution, solar radiance, magma and volcano impacts, cyclic astrophysics are far from the settle science that some have implied. Incidentally, there is no such thing as “settled science” science is never settled, just a demonstrable fact with a percentage probability, based on the current state of knowledge.
The world should not be picking an uninformed fight with air or sea temperatures on this planet, bankrupting world economies to attain a scientifically unsubstantiated goal.
So what should the world be doing about impending global climate changes? First, do no harm. Second, do much more scientific study and analysis of existing data before determining a culprit or culprits. Once we are sure what is taking place, change the models and back test it to see if it replicates historical fact. If not, do not proceed, something is wrong with your process facts and the model or both. Once your model is right develop many courses of action and test them. Pick several of the best ones and try them in small measurable test circumstances, look for negative consequences not just hopeful outcomes.
While the reliable modern science is underway, governments and cultures should decide what provisions and systems they want to invest in to protect human life from extreme future conditions. Things like super insulated living structures, mega heating and cooling systems, artificial environments for food production and long-term food storage facilities, solar screens, ice barricades, or adjustable sea walls. Medical and life system and infrastructure decisions and long term investments must be made. Societal value changes regarding disease, famine, mass migrations, forced relocations, handling increased death rates from freezing, heat stroke; plant species survival and available food and diet changes; and animal behavior, food source and migration changes; and a host of legal and economic systems that will need vastly different processes and reactions. National defense, border protection, commerce, wealth protection, and personal security will all change substantially.
These program changes and provisions cannot wait until the last moments to be financed and tested. Contingency funds must begin being set aside, preserved and adjusted. Vast efforts made and resources sequestered and secured exclusively for these purposes only, for long periods into the future, so they are there to meet the most severe impacts to planetary life forms from global climate changes, warming or freezing, as they occur.
25 June 2009
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