Oil, Oil Everywhere

Supply isn’t the problem, power and greed are.

The Bakken Formation, mostly in North Dakota, Montana, and Saskatchewan, according to the April 2008 USGS report, contains 3.65 billion barrels (BBbls) of technically recoverable oil. A research paper by USGS geochemist Leigh Price in 1999 estimated the total amount of oil contained in the Bakken shale from 271 billion to 503 BBbls a mean of 413 billion barrels. In April 2008, a report issued by North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources estimated that the North Dakota portion of the Bakken contained 167 billion barrels. Flannery and Kraus (2006) using a more sophisticated computer program with extensive data supplied by ND Geological Survey placed the value at 300 BBbls, these estimates are with current technology. Improvements in horizontal drilling recovery rates from Bakken shale are occurring each year as field experience in the Williston Basin grows.

So how does this potential crude oil volume compare to our current US Crude Oil use? According to American Petroleum Institute April 2009, US demand was at roughly 7.3 BBbls per year, it’s lowest in 5 years. Let’s say Leigh Price’s mean is right, 413 BBbls available by current technology, divided by a number higher than current US demand, let’s use 10 BBbls annually. The Bakken Formation alone could be more than a forty year supply, if reserved for US use only.

So let’s say the Bakken reaches and sustains 200 million barrels annually from Montana and North Dakota for many years into the future. This would be about 2.7 % of our current demand, a lot from just one oil field. The field is in early development and estimated to produce 60 million barrels in 2009.

According to the Energy Information Administration, (http://www.eia.doe.gov/) April 2009, Total Petroleum Imports Report shows Canada, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia exported 1.913, 1.219 and 1.099 million barrels per day respectfully to the US. The top five exporting countries accounted for 64 percent of United States crude oil imports in February. From all countries this total was 12.2 million barrels per day in February 2009. The US portion of the Bakken Formation is likely to produce more than 700,000 barrels per day at its peak.

This one field is significant and should generate political and broadcast news interest. Other than Senators, Representatives, and landowners from Montana and North Dakota, I’ve scarcely heard it mentioned. The traditional broadcast media have never mentioned it that I’ve ever heard or seen. The current administration certainly won’t mention it, although many of them stand to gain considerable wealth from their investments in it. Additionally, the discovery doesn’t match its view of the future world and its blind adherence to Al Gore and some others misinformed idea that human activity is causing Global Warming and quickly using up the world’s available oil. Neither is true.

The price for good quality crude is still very low adjusted for inflation. If it were becoming scare, I suspect the true price not counting speculation would be $200 to $300 per barrel, not the less than the $50 per barrel seen recently. Some countries have only recently begun searching for and using their natural resources. Some have never looked and won’t allow foreigners in to look. Some have kicked out those who know how to produce oil and seized the resources for their countrymen (sic) and themselves. Some developing countries will be using more oil and have begun serious exploration and development of their own potential fields. Some are not stable enough to produce or market crude oil predictably. A few nations restrict volume to keep their revenue high, instead of increasing their production and marketing to increase their revenue.

What’s going on here then? Mostly hysteria, political power grabs, and finance and market manipulation attempts by self deluded greedy megalomaniacs and foolish and arrogant elected officials that think their contrived schemes are elaborate enough to fool everyone.

They won’t fool everyone, but they have already fooled many. These petty, conniving, manipulative, greedy, thieves and self-serving pretend caring creeps with help from the uninformed well-meaning are just doing what they have always done, taking all they can from the ignorant and the defenseless.